ALREADY SAW LOTS OF FORECASTS?

If you follow weather, even a little bit, you’ve surely heard someone’s forecast for the coming winter. Chances are, you’ve heard several. Some come from “official” sources (Climate Prediction Center), some from respected meteorological firms (The Weather Channel), and some that I’ll just call “other”. People start asking about the winter forecast even before the previous winter is over. There’s more and more pressure to issue one earlier each year.

WANT A FORECAST FOR OCTOBER 25, 2060?
If there’s enough demand for it (especially if someone is willing to pay for it), there will be someplace that will give them a forecast for a specific date 45 years from now. Why not? No one will ever find out if it’s right or not. And a specific day’s forecast 45 years from now will be every bit as accurate as one 45 days from now. That’s because both have ZERO SKILL! That is, neither will be better than flipping a coin. I use 45 days/years because AccuWeather has been using specific 45 day forecasts for a while. And I’m sure there are people who take it seriously, because they want to know. There are even companies that already do specific forecasts for an entire year. And they make money doing it!

AT BEST, SEASONAL FORECASTING IS DIFFICULT
While there is no evidence that anyone can predict weather for specific days beyond a couple of weeks, more generalized forecasts of the next few months has shown some skill. It’s more like a little skill. It is better than flipping a coin, but not by a lot.

I started doing winter forecasts of some sort in 1997, which just so happened to be when the strongest El Nino in history was developing. That was no accident. There had been some recent scientific papers that connected strong El Niño’s with warm, nearly snow-free winters in our part of the world. And I went on the air and predicted that. We ended up with less than one inch of snow for the entire winter!

The problem was that now people thought we could predict for the winter season all the time! And when people (in my case, known as TV viewers) demand something, we tend to give it to them. It’s like the business slogan, “The customer is always right.” My bosses had that philosophy, so now we had to make a winter forecast every year, sometime in November. They promoted them heavily, and the ratings actually spiked on those nights. So what happened? Every other station started doing it, too. After all, the people had spoken!

This was all wonderful, except for the fact that no future winter was as clear-cut as the first one. We had some successes and failures in the 17 years since then. The science of seasonal forecasting has improved a bit, but there are still important factors that simply don’t show up until November. That is why, no matter who asks, I tell them that it’s “too soon”. But the research has been going on since summer ended, and there are some big things to look at this year.

FACTORS FOR 2015-16 WINTER:
EL NINO
Of course, El Nino is what everyone is talking about. It may be just as strong, or even stronger, than the one in ’97-’98. But no two weather patterns are the same, and no two ocean patterns are the same. Take a look at the maps, side by side, of ocean temperatures (compared to “normal”) then and now:

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Yes, the area of super-warm water in the Tropical Pacific (middle of the screen) looks the same. But freeze the video at the end and you’ll also see very warm water far north of the El Nino area. The area off of California has been called “The Blob”. There’s another warm area not far off the Alaska coast. Those are major differences from 1997, and we can’t just ignore them. If they weren’t there, I would likely be predicting a warm winter with very little snow. But they are there.

“THE BLOB” & OTHER PACIFIC WARMTH
Those other areas of very warm water in the Pacific are not as mysterious as some are saying. They are part of other natural oscillations known as the PDO and EPO. Those areas had a lot to do with the past two rough winters in the Eastern U.S. That was a big factor in the 100”+ of snow that Boston got (even New York City had more than 50” in each of the past two winters). We’ve been on the edge of the real snowy winter area both years. Those warm blobs are a factor pointing at colder and snowier for us.

SNOW COVER IN EURASIA (AND BEYOND)
This is the main reason I want to wait until November to make a winter forecast. The increase in snow on the ground across the world in Eurasia has a very high correlation with our winter weather. And the most important number is the increase during the month of October. So we have to wait until that data is in. It’s not just a statistical relationship that is coincidental: researchers have shown how the snow cover there actually changes weather patterns across the world that eventually affect us. Snow in Canada is another factor, but, believe it or not, the correlation isn’t as strong as Eurasian snow.

TO SUM IT UP:
Of course, there are other factors across the globe, from soil moisture in the U.S. to winds way up in the stratosphere. That’s part of the problem: there are so many factors that they sometimes cancel each other out.

We were able to get severe winters in the Northeast U.S. in the past two years even without the extreme Arctic and North Atlantic blocking patterns. Those led to the severe winters from 2009-11. What if we somehow combine the extra storminess due to the El Nino, PLUS the Blob influence PLUS Arctic blocking as a result of the Siberian snow? Then we have the potential for a BIG winter. Information coming in the next week or two may be the determining factors.

Stay tuned.

Glenn “Hurricane” Schwartz
Chief Meteorologist, NBC10 Philadelphia

Battling a rare form of cancer was already taking a toll on Issac Harrison and his family.

One month shy of his first birthday, Isaac is now fighting to survive an overdose of chemotherapy his father said was administered by the Philadelphia hospital where Isaac was diagnosed and initially treated.

"It’s like a nightmare," Kwamane Harrison said, adding his son’s cancer is so rare, doctors told him no one else in the city has it.

Since there have only been six known cases in medical history, doctors said they would have to come up with their own formula for treatment, according to Harrison.

One doctor told the family Isaac may only live a week after being diagnosed.

That was in late August.

Isaac began chemotherapy at St. Christopher’s Hospital for Children, where Harrison said his son was given 10 times the dose of chemotherapy he was supposed to get. That went on for five days, according to Harrison.

"They said this was one of the biggest medical mistakes in 35 years," said Harrison, whose son is now fighting under the care of doctors at The Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia. "He goes through all of these pains, losing hair, crying excessively from all the pain he’s going through."

A spokeswoman for St. Christopher’s Hospital said she couldn't respond specifically to the family's concerns, citing privacy laws. "It remains the focus of St. Christopher's Hospital for Children to provide high-quality care to every patient we serve," Kelsey Jacobsen said.

A letter provided by the Harrison family, allegedly from hospital officials, states: 

"Isaac was being treated for a very unusual and serious cancer. The calculation done was inaccurate, resulting in Isaac receiving more chemotherapy than he should have. 

"This complication is a cause for great regret."

Documents from the Harrison family include a Final Report detailing how hospital staff discovered Isaac was given 10x the daily dose of chemotherapy intended due to "a typographic error." Doctors at St. Christopher's called CHOP to begin the transfer process for Isaac.

Dr. Mary Moran, the head of pediatrics at St. Christopher's, said the hospital would review policies after the incident.

Isaac is the youngest of five children.

"Nobody wants to hear their child has cancer," Harrison said. "Every day that passes, he's blessed."

The 31-year-old teacher indicted on charges of child abuse and endangering the welfare of a child after cellphone video surfaced showing her manhandling a child at Hoboken Apple Montessori School in New Jersey said she's devastated by the allegations and is usually "great with kids."

Kelli Dugan was among the five teachers, aides and officials fired from the school after several videos, including the one featuring Dugan, emerged showing workers inappropriately handling children. A grand jury opted to indict Dugan, but cleared another one of the employees in the videos.

The clip of Dugan obtained by NBC 4 New York in May shows her in red, sitting and holding a 2-year-old girl by her legs, preventing her from moving freely. The teacher is heard cursing in the video; she yells at the child and eventually swings her over a fence before dragging her back inside.

As she headed into an initial court appearance Thursday, a tearful Dugan exclusively told NBC 4 New York she doesn't really remember that day but said it was probably just a bad day. She said she has seen the video and understands why people would get "the wrong idea" but insists she loves the kids she worked with at Hoboken Apple Montessori School and misses them greatly.

She said she probably could have handled the situation better than she did. 

Dugan said she's terrified by the severity of the charges; she says the video and subsequent indictment have ruined her life. She says she had to move and hasn't been able to find work.

Dugan's attorney, Anthony Carbone, says the prosecutor is making an example of his client. He says the allegations against her do not rise to the level of the charges in the indictment.

Dugan pleaded not guilty at Thursday's arraignment. Her bail was set at $35,000.

After the videos emerged, Apple Montessori, which runs 17 schools in New Jersey, said it implemented a comprehensive five-point plan to reinforce staff training, enhance security, and strengthen protocols for child safety and security.

"Because this matter is part of litigation, the school is placed in an awkward position regarding what can be shared through the media – even when challenging inaccurate and exaggerated claims," Apple Montessori said in a statement Thursday. "However, it is important to emphasize that the school’s ownership took immediate and definitive action when learning of the incident – including the immediate termination of the employee involved."

"The behavior depicted in a related video clearly is inconsistent with the school’s reputation for high-quality education, which has been maintained by more than 2,000 teachers and staff who have cared for students during the school’s 42-year history," the statement said.

Meanwhile, the parents of the two children have filed a lawsuit seeking unspecified damages from Apple Montessori Schools and several employees for negligence, emotional damage, breach of contract, assault and other charges.

"While we remain saddened by the events that occurred at the Apple Montessori School, and continue to wonder with fear about what may have happened to our daughter when the video wasn’t rolling, we take some comfort in knowing that at least one person will be judged in a court of law for her actions against our daughter," Corey Stern, a lawyer for one of the families, said on his clients' behalf 

The Hoboken Prosecutor’s Office urges anyone who knows a child is being abused to report it to the New Jersey Department of Children and Families hotline at 1-877-NJ-Abuse, local police departments, or the Prosecutor’s Office Special Victims Unit at 201-915-1234.

Authorities are investigating after several Ku Klux Klan recruitment fliers turned up on lawns in one New Jersey town over the weekend.

Lyndhurst Police Chief James O'Connor says the fliers were tossed in front of homes in a plastic bag with pebbles inside, presumably so the bags wouldn't fly away.

He said police received five complaints.

The three-page fliers ask people to join the KKK and feature anti-Latino and anti-gay statements. They list a web address and a phone number for a group in North Carolina.

One of the families that received the KKK flier said they were horrified.

"It is completely unacceptable. Disgusting, outrageous," said Sara Salkind, who received a flier on the doorstep of the home where she, her husband Steve and their biracial children live.

"I am appalled and I can't believe in this day and age, something like this could exist," said Salkind, who is Jewish. 

Her husband Steve Post said he thought at first it was a prank. 

O'Connor said there is no known KKK activity in Lyndhurst. He said the group believed to be behind the flier dumps has dropped the pamphlets in other communities in the past to get attention. Last year, similar fliers were found on the lawns of homes on Long Island.

"I would tell you there's no active faction of the KKK here, there's no one that I know of that believes in their beliefs or their values," he said. 

Salkind agreed, saying Lyndhurst is not a racist community and their recruitment flier won't work here. She made a point of ripping up the flier: "This is what I think of this type of activity in this community." 

The NAACP didn't immediately respond to a call. 

Police said there's nothing illegal in the fliers, so the person behind it won't face any charges. They're asking residents to do with the fliers what they'd do with any garbage: just throw it away. 

The health care worker quarantined at a New Jersey hospital for several days last year because she had contact with Ebola patients in West Africa has filed a federal lawsuit against Gov. Chris Christie and several New Jersey Department of Health officials, including the former commissioner, alleging the forced confinement violated her civil rights. 

Kaci Hickox, a nurse who had been working with Doctors Without Borders in Sierra Leone, which at one point was a hotspot of the 2014 Ebola virus outbreak, was detained at Newark Liberty International Airport upon arriving there Oct. 24, 2014 and then later held at University Hospital.

She spent the weekend in a quarantine tent in an "unheated parking garage" despite having no symptoms other than a slightly elevated temperature she blamed on being "flushed and upset" by her treatment at the airport and had threatened to sue at the time if she wasn't released.

The lawsuit filed Thursday in Newark federal court alleges Christie, former New Jersey Department of Health Commissioner Mary O'Dowd and other health officials violated Hickox's rights by depriving her of due process and unlawfully seizing, detaining and quarantining her while relying on fear rather than science to justify her confinement.

It seeks compensatory and punitive damages in the amount of at least $250,000 in addition to covering court costs and attorney fees. 

“I never had Ebola. I never had symptoms of Ebola. I tested negative for Ebola the first night I stayed in New Jersey governor Chris Christie’s private prison,” Hickox, 34, said in a statement. “My liberty, my interests and consequently my civil rights were ignored because some ambitious governors saw an opportunity to use an age-old political tactic: fear.”

Hickox was the first person quarantined in the Garden State under a mandate Christie had issued the week before. The governor defended the quarantine, saying the move was to protect people in New Jersey. Gov. Cuomo in New York, where one doctor was successfully treated for the Ebola virus at Bellevue Hospital, had issued a similar quarantine order, which mandated a 21-day isolation and observation period for health care workers who treated patients in West Africa. 

Both governors were sharply criticized for ordering the quarantines, which stepped beyond Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines calling for asymptomatic people returning from Ebola-stricken countries only to avoid public transportation and large gatherings. 

Christie's office said it would not comment on the lawsuit because it is a pending legal matter, but pointed to comments the governor made in the past defending the quarantine. In one previous interview, he said his heart went out to Hickox but his "first and foremost obligation is to protect the public health and safety of the people of New Jersey."

The New Jersey Department of Health said it does not comment on pending litigation.  

"The decision to quarantine anyone must be made based on science, not fear and politics," Udi Ofer, executive director of the ACLU of New Jersey, which joins Hickox in filing the lawsuit, said in a statement. "In holding Kaci Hickox, the governor and the former head of the Department of Health not only violated her basic constitutional rights, but they did so without any scientific foundation. Now, a year later, we are proud to help Kaci vindicate those rights."

Hickox slammed officials over the treatment she received, writing in a first-person account in the Dallas Morning News upon her release from the hospital that she encountered fear and disorganization when she arrived at the airport. She wrote that she was stopped and questioned over several hours and was left without food for an extended period.

No one would explain what was going on or what would happen to her, she said in the piece, which was written with the help of a Dallas Morning News staff writer.

At the time of her confinement, Doctors Without Borders had said in a statement that it was "very concerned about the conditions and uncertainty (Hickox) is facing."

"While measures to protect public health are of paramount importance, they must be balanced against the rights of health workers returning from fighting the Ebola outbreak in West Africa to fair and reasonable treatment and the full disclosure of information to them, along with information about intended courses of action from local and state health authorities," the organization said. 

A Main Line man with autism faces luring charges after police said he asked three siblings if they had ever been a “cabin in the woods.”

Daniel Lee, 26, began to speak with a 10-year-old girl, 9-year-old boy and 8-year-old girl as they rode their bikes along Arbordale Road near W Wayne Avenue in Wayne, Pennsylvania late Wednesday afternoon and told the children that he planned to go to an abandoned house deep in the woods, according to a criminal complaint from Radnor Township Police.

The man followed the children for a little bit before walking off into the woods behind nearby Wayne Elementary School, the eldest girl told investigators. About 20 minutes later reappeared and began to speak to the same three children as they played on the school playground, police said.

“There was concern that he could be trying to lure these children away from the school,” said Radnor police Lt. Andy Block.

The children’s mother showed up and saw the man wearing black and carrying a backpack talking to her children and asked her children what he told them, said investigators. She then called 911 and left the immediate area with her children.

Officers arrived around 6:30 p.m. to find the mother, her children nearby and then picked up Lee walking near the school, said police. The eldest girl identified Lee as the man who scared her when he asked about going to a “cabin in the woods” and also asked questions about the children’s teachers.

The girl’s younger siblings also mentioned the “cabin in the woods” conversation and the boy difficulty said Lee “scares the hell out of him,” said the criminal complaint.

Lee, who works part-time at a movie theater, told investigators that he knew it was wrong for an adult to approach children who don’t know him. Lee also told investigators that he spoke to the kids – who he thought were under 10 years old – about an abandoned house in the woods. Investigators don’t believe the abandoned property actually exists.

“It was more of an insinuation,” said Det. TJ Schreiber.

Investigators said they believe Lee knows between right and wrong and that he is a high school graduate.

Lee's parents told NBC10 that their son has autism and often interacts with children.

Schreiber said that Lee was previously investigated for talking to kids about leaves back in 2011 but that no charges came from that case.

A judge sent Lee – who faces three counts each of luring, corruption of minors and harassment – to county jail in lieu of 10 percent of $100,000 bail. Lee also must undergo a psychiatric evaluation.

Police asked that anyone else who might have come in contact with Lee to call them at 610-688-0503.

Days away from jury selection, prosecutors are fighting to keep Gregory Graf from using his mental state to defend himself against charges he murdered his stepdaughter and then videotaped himself having sex with her corpse.

The five day search for Jessica Padgett, mother of three and newlywed from Northampton County came to a stunning end the day before Thanksgiving last year when investigators found her body in a shallow grave on the property where Graf lived with Jessica’s mother.

District Attorney John Morganelli is asking the judge to prohibit any expert testimony during the trial from a psychologist the defense hired to evaluate Graf.

The defense missed a deadline to disclose the findings of their psychiatric evaluation. Without that information, Morganelli argued he’s left with little time to determine if he needs his own expert to mentally evaluate Graf.

Attorney Jack McMahon is expected to use Graf’s mental state to defend him when the Allentown man’s trial gets underway Nov. 2.

“We can’t be surprised on the eve of the trial,” Morganelli told The Morning Call.

Padgett, 33, was last seen on Nov. 21 when she left her job at a day care to run an errand. She'd gone to Graf's place to fax some papers. Graf, 54, admitted shooting Jessica in his home, according to Morganelli. After violating her corpse, prosecutors allege he buried her behind a shed in his yard.

While she was missing, Jessica’s family and friends set up a Help Find Jessica Padgett page on Facebook. More than 8,000 people joined the group and have since helped raise more than $20,000 to help support Padgett’s children.

A hearing on Morganelli’s petition is scheduled for Oct. 30.

If you're a woman, minority, veteran, disabled or LGBT-owned business, organizers for next summer's Democratic National Convention want you.

Philadelphia is hosting the DNC at the Wells Fargo Center from July 25 - 28, 2016.

Planners want at least 35-percent of their vendors to be diverse. If they reach that level of participation, it would be the highest percentage of diverse vendors for any democratic convention, according to host committee Press Secretary Lee Whack. When the DNC was held in Charlotte, N.C. four years ago, Whack said 33-percent of the vendors were businesses that fall under the diverse umbrella.

“This convention will be one of the most engaging, diverse, forward-looking conventions in history. And we can only do that by engaging with local and diverse vendors," Whack said.

If you're interested, go to the host committee website: demconvention.com and click on the GET INVOLVED button. Or use this Vendor Directory form to register for contract consideration.

The DNC host committee is also planning an outreach forum for vendors on Nov. 16. More information will be posted on their website in the coming weeks.

Vendors are needed for more than 40 services including everything from organizing travel, fundraising, event rentals, opposition research to media buying, graphic art and managing petitions.

Police in South Jersey hope to reunite people with their stolen car stereos, power tools, medications and electronics that wound up for sale at a bodega.

On Thursday, Camden County Police showed off items they recovered from the Quisqueya food market at 2421 Federal St. in Camden. In photos released by police you can see numerous items strewn about inside the store.

City officials closed the bodega due to health violations and suspended the store’s business license.

Police said they arrested Manuel Mendoza, 41, earlier this month on 16 counts of burglary stemming from thefts from cars in the North Camden area over the last month or so. Mendoza sold the stolen items – including power tools, medicine and electronics – to Quisqueya, said police.

Mendoza remained jailed Thursday, unable to post $136,499 bail.

The store owner is out of the country and will be charged upon his return, said investigators.

Police asked anyone who had items stolen from their car in North or East Camden in recent weeks – or who recognizes stolen items – to contact investigators at (856) 757-7420.

A heavyset man targeted a Montgomery County convenience store as he grabbed a carton of cigarettes and dashed out the door, said police.

The incident happened on Tuesday around 9:30 p.m. at the 7-Eleven on W. Main Street in Lansdale, Pennsylvania.

Lansdale Police asked for the public's help Thursday in hopes of identifying the man. He is described as a heavyset male with red, greasy hair and some facial hair. He allegedly asked the clerk to purchase a carton of cigarettes, but grabbed the carton and ran when the clerk placed them on the counter, said investigators.

The man is believed to frequent this location and may live or work nearby, said police.

Anyone with information is asked to contact Lansdale Police..
 

Philadelphia's haven for new tech ideas, N3rd Street is celebrating its first birthday this weekend at Northern Liberties' Liberty Lands Park with live music, food, and games.

Last year, North 3rd Street, between Market Street and Girard Avenue, was officially recognized as N3rd (pronounced nerd) Street. The name comes from a high amount of gamers and innovators working in the proximity.

On Saturday from noon to 5 p.m., N3rd Street will host the party in the hopes of spreading national awareness of the City of Philadelphia’s support of entrepreneurs, according to a news release.

The event will feature live music from Philly-native Aaron Goode and the Goode Guys.

Gunfire rang out along a Delaware street Thursday night leaving three peoples shot.

New Castle County dispatchers didn’t immediately know the conditions of the victims of the shooting around 7:45 p.m. along the 800 block of Vandever Avenue near N Church Street in Wilmington.

As SkyForce10 hovered overhead a short time later, you could see officer gathering evidence as police tape blocked off the street.

No immediate arrests were made.