Much of the area could see at least half a foot of heavy snow from a major nor'easter that will batter the region later this week. In some neighborhoods, those totals are expected to climb even higher from a storm that will arrive exactly one week after another significant ice storm devastated area communities.
"Here we go again," said NBC10 First Alert Weather Chief Meteorologist Glenn “Hurricane” Schwartz as he poured over the latest forecast data in the First Alert Weather Center.
Two weather systems – one from the Pacific Northwest and another from the Gulf Coast – are moving east and will merge to the south of the Delaware and Lehigh Valleys forming the nor’easter. From there, the storm will move up the coast arriving by Wednesday evening and lasting through Thursday morning.
“When you have storms like this that develop in the Gulf of Mexico and you have very cold air to start with, you have the potential to have heavy accumulations in at least part of the area, depending on the track. So this one has a lot of potential,” Hurricane says.
Hurricane says this nor’easter has a lot of moisture associated with it, which will equate to heavy snow, heavy rain or both – depending on what part of the area you live.
A MORE TYPICAL WINTER STORM
This nor’easter will be vastly different from last week’s ice storm and is considered a “more typical” winter storm, according to Hurricane.
“That’s where northern and western areas get the most snow, coastal areas get the least and any changeover to ice is temporary,” he said.
The computer models have not synced up, but Hurricane says the European model is proving to be the most reliable for this storm. As of Monday afternoon, that means the storm appears to be tracking up the coast and not move out to sea, which would spare the very winter weary citizens that call the region home.
Based on the latest data, much of the region will see at least 6 inches of snow by the time its all over -- that includes Philadelphia. For the suburbs to the immediate north and west of the city, accumulations will climb to 10 inches or even more than that.
"This one will have more wind and less ice," he said. "Some places, especially north and west can get 10 inches plus out of this."
The temperature will play an important role in determining the snow-fate of much of the area. The mercury will be in below freezing on Wednesday and then is expected to rise into the upper 30s throughout the storm. The faster -- or slower -- that happens will determine whether some areas get more or less snow. But, with the latter may come other issues like flooding.
“What is it doing at the peak of the storm? Is it snowing at the peak of the storm or is it raining at the peak of the storm, so that makes a big difference in the total accumulation,” Hurricane said. “That’s the critical part of the forecast.”
“It all depends on the temperature. When the storm starts up, the precipitation may be fluffier snow, but it’s possible that at the peak of the storm it will be wet snow, which is what we don’t want to hear,” he said.
THE TIMELINE
Thursday morning “could be a mess in one way or another” as the worst of the storm moves out leaving the effects in its wake, Hurricane says. Here’s how the storm is expected to shake out.
TUESDAY
Daytime – Sunny and Bitter Cold with temperatures in the 20s
Nighttime – Frigid, bone-chilling cold with temperatures in the teens or even single digits
WEDNESDAY
Morning through Early Afternoon – Sunny, Dry and very cold
Evening (around 6 p.m.) – First of the moisture begins to move in
Nighttime (8 p.m. – Midnight) – Storm ramps up moving towards the heaviest snow and rainfall
THURSDAY
Overnight (Midnight – 6 a.m.) – Height of the storm with the heaviest snow and rainfall
Morning Rush (6 a.m. – 9 a.m.) – Storm begins to wind down
Mid-Morning (9 a.m. – Noon) – Lingering moisture falls
Afternoon (Noon and on) – Drying out begins
POTENTIAL PROBLEMS
While the nor’easter progresses from fluffier snow to heavy, wet snow, that precipitation could equate to a new set of issues for people – including more power outages.
“I’m not as concerned about ice build-up, but heavy, wet snow accumulating on tree limbs that were already strained during the last storm, that might be on the edge; so you do have the potential for some more power outages,” Hurricane says.
Flooding can also be a concern should more heavy rain fall, especially when mixed with snow already laying on the ground from past storms.
"I'm sorry. I wish I didn't have to relay it," Hurricane said of the foreceast. "I know people have had a rough time and some worse than rough and there is no joy in putting out a forecast like this."
ESTIMATED SNOW TOTALS
Lehigh/Berks/Poconos - 6 inches
Montgomery/Chester/Bucks/Mercer(NJ) - 10 inches
Philly/I-95 Corridor - 6 inches
Coastal Delaware/Southern Jersey - 2 to 4 inches
The closer the storm gets to the area, the better detail the NBC10 First Alert Weather Team will be able to provide. So check back often to NBC10.com’s Severe Weather Central for the latest information.