A CLASSIC SET-UP
So far, we’ve had a practically snowless winter. It took until Jan. 17th for the first measurable snow to fall in Philadelphia, and that was just ½ inch. But now we are looking at a chance of a snowstorm in much of the area by the weekend. A lot of ingredients are in place to give us more confidence than normal a full FOUR days ahead of the start of the storm.

#1   IT’S COLD!
Arctic air moved in Sunday night, and will hold firm for much of the week. We often lack enough cold air for snow in strong El Nino winters, and the current one is no exception. But this time it’s clearly cold enough for the storm to at least start as snow through just about the entire area. And, as long as the storm tracks south of us, it’s going to be hard for all of us to see a change to a wintry mix and/or rain. Some area is going to see all snow-and probably a lot of it.

#2  THIS ONE IS A “TYPE A” STORM: FEWER SURPRISES
Meteorologists have been talking about “Type A” and “Type B” winter storms for decades. To give credit where credit is due, they are called “Miller-Type A” and “Miller-Type B," first published in 1946!

Type A storms have the fewest surprises, and tend to give more widespread heavy snow, if it’s cold enough. These storms track near or north of the Gulf of Mexico and already have plenty of moisture with them by the time they hit the Atlantic coast. The “Blizzard of ’96," and what is known as “The Storm of the Century” in March ’93 are examples. We generally have more confidence predicting these types of storms days ahead of time.

#3 A SIMILAR SET-UP: FEBRUARY 1983
It’s sometimes hard to get a snowstorm around here during a strong El Nino year. The winters of 1997-98 and 1972-73 were virtually snowless. But in 1983, after a relatively snowless winter, a Type A storm developed and led to 21” of snow in Philadelphia. At the time, it was the biggest snowstorm ever recorded here. So, it has happened before.

#4 A VERY NEGATIVE AO OR NAO
We’ve often discussed the importance of negative phases of the AO (Arctic Oscillation) and the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) in leading to big winter storms in this part of the country. In this case, the AO is just about as negative as it can get:

#5  THE COMPUTER MODELS STILL AGREE
The more often we can say this, the more confidence we have that the storm will hit as predicted. All of the computer models are still showing LOW pressure tracking south of us, with plenty of moisture. Some bring more warm air in from the ocean, which would cause a change-over to rain. But the European model has now shown virtually the same thing for FOUR different “runs” (the model is run every 12 hours). When the best model overall is that consistent, our confidence grows.

Below is the latest forecast map from the EURO. The LOW is in a nearly ideal position for a major winter storm in our area.

We’ve also mentioned “ensembles” before. The EURO is run 51 times each 12 hours, with slightly different initial conditions. The average of the 51 runs is considered by many as “the best of the best." It has the LOW taking almost the exact track of the previous EURO solutions.

THE BOTTOM LINE
It’s still too early for specifics, but there is increasing potential for a major winter storm to affect much of our area during the Friday afternoon to Saturday period. We will provide updates with the latest thinking each day as we go through the week. Plans don’t need to be changed just yet, but by now, the forecast should be something at least in the back of your mind that plans might need to change.

The area most likely to get ALL SNOW is our far Northern & Western Suburbs (Lehigh Valley, Berks, Upper Bucks/Montgomery, and North & West Chester Counties.) The least snow should fall at the shore, since there should be more hours of rain as warmer air moves in. The possibility of a mix with or change to rain makes the rest of the area trickier to forecast with precision. We should know more details and have more confidence each day.
 

Three men allegedly stole more than $1,000 worth of over-the-counter medication from a supermarket in New Jersey.

Police say the three men stole the medicine from the Weis Markets store in Franklin. They allegedly concealed the medicine before leaving the supermarket.

Two of the men were arrested and are currently being held at the Hudson County Jail on unrelated charges.

The third man, 26-year-old Matthew Bergen, is wanted. Police are asking for the public’s help in finding him.

A New Jersey family is claiming Paterson police assaulted a 17-year-old boy, leaving him bleeding and bruised when he didn't respond to questions about where he lived. 

Larry Martinez Garcia told NBC 4 partner station Telemundo-47 that he was parking his car when an unmarked police van pulled up and six officers stopped him. 

They checked his identification, Garcia said, but when they asked where he lived, he refused to answer. 

That's when they started punching him, apparently suspecting he had drugs, said Garcia. 

His family said officers later searched his home but found nothing. 

"I want justice to be made because it's not fair that innocent people should get beat up for no reason," he told Telemundo-47.

The family went to the police station Monday to file a formal complaint. Police Captain Richard Reyes told Telemundo-47 outside that police "take any allegations seriously" and that they would be investigating the report. 

A pair of crashes – one involving several cars – snarled the morning commute along Interstate 95 Tuesday morning.

Pennsylvania State Police said several cars were involved in a wreck along southbound I-95 at Cottman Avenue in Northeast Philadelphia around 6:15 p.m. No word yet on injuries from the wreck that caused police to briefly close the highway.

The crash came on the heels of another multi-vehicle crash further down I-95 near the Blue Route (Interstate 476) Interchange in Delaware County.

After several minutes, crews got the wrecks pushed off to the side of the roadway and traffic began moving past the scenes.

Two years after she was gunned down in front of her mother during a robbery in Northern Liberties, Amber Long's murderer remains at large.

The 26-year-old architect and Philadelphia University alum and her mother, Stephanie, were walking to their car along Front Street on the evening of Jan. 19, 2014 when two men attacked them.

Detectives said Amber Long did not resist one of the robbers as he pulled at her purse, but he turned and shot her point blank in abdomen.

"I don't forgive him. I can't. I can't," Stephanie Long said in the days after the killing speaking of the man who shot her daughter over a $14 handbag. "She just isn't there anymore and will never be again."

The men never got the purse and ran off as Amber's life faded into the cold night.

Surveillance cameras caught the crime on video and investigators questioned two men in the case, but they were later cleared. Since then, leads have remained scarce.

A $37,000 reward remains for information that leads to an arrest and conviction.

Philadelphia University has also raised tens of thousands of dollars for a scholarship fund in her honor.

Anyone with information is asked to call Philadelphia Police at 215.686.TIPS.

Potentially major snow could be heading our way but students’ dreams of a day off from school likely won’t come to fruition.

"This is a student's worst nightmare if they're looking for a day off of school," said NBC10 First Alert Weather meteorologist Bill Henley. "They could potentially get the entire day in on Friday – the snowstorm comes in over the weekend and everyone's back to school on Monday."

Schools might be the only thing not impacted by the upcoming weekend winter weather.

"It's likely that we will get a winter storm," said Bill.

It’s too early right now to talk totals or exact timing but people should plan on winter weather possibly effecting Friday night and Saturday plans.

The winter storm is expected to move in late Friday afternoon to Friday evening with heavy snowfall expected to start early Saturday and possibly last throughout the day, said Bill.

"This storm looks to be capable of producing 3 feet of snow somewhere, probably not here," said Bill.

As of Tuesday morning, the bull's eye for the storm ranges from northern Virginia and West Virginia to south-central Pennsylvania, said Bill.

"The models have been fairly consistent and the timing's been fairly consistent too," said Bill.

The winter storm is expected to move in late Friday afternoon to Friday evening with heavier snowfall expected to continue into Saturday and possibly last throughout the day, said Bill.

The First Alert Weather Team issued a First Alert ahead of the storm to warn people about the storm's potential. As the week progresses we should know more about where the rain/snow line should be. As of now, Bill says that this storm appears to be all snow for Wilmington, Philadelphia, Trenton, immediate suburbs and points north and west.

"There is still potential for some snow and rain along with Nor'easter conditions at the shore," said Bill. "Still to be answered is where that rain/snow line hits and does it move further inland."

The further offshore the storm track moves, the more likely this will be an all snow event for the entire area, said Bill.

Blizzard conditions (where winds exceed 35 mph with less than 1/4-mile visibility and heavy or blowing snow lasting for three hours or more) don't seem likely with this storm but that doesn't mean it isn't possible, says Bill. Gusts up to 50 mph could hit along the coast and heavy winds are expected inland as well.

And, if you really don’t want to go to school, there is some hope; Bill says that weekend classes, events and Sunday school could be impacted. Travelers should expect flight delays even if the heaviest snow hits elsewhere.

The lesson here… stay tuned and check in with the NBC10 First Alert Weather Team on air and on NBC10.com as the storm approaches.

After refusing to engage in a “cage match” with Donald Trump for months, Ted Cruz finally directly challenged his Republican rival on the campaign trail.

Cruz highlighted Trump’s record, drawing contrasts between the two men in a speech on Monday night. He highlighted conservative issues, like the 2013 debate over the Senate’s immigration measure, urging the crowd to wonder where Trump was during that fight.

He told voters they have “reason to doubt the credibility” of a candidate who takes hardline positions only after announcing his candidacy.

Cruz said he has “no intention of reciprocating” the “insults” launched by Trump, but thinks a policy discussion is “fair game.”

With bitter cold gripping the area Tuesday morning, at least one local school had to close its door due to a lack of heat.

A heating malfunction caused the Bristol Township School District to close Truman High School on Green Lane in Levittown shortly before 10 a.m.

No word yet on when repairs will be completed but the district said students should expect to be in school Wednesday.

The Philadelphia School District closed the U School and Building 21 because the building the high schools share on N. 7th Street had no heat Tuesday morning.

Heating problems also caused the Alain Locke School on Haverford Avenue in West Philadelphia to send students home early at noon.

Eleven New Jersey schools were placed on lockdown or evacuated for part of the day Tuesday after officials received threats about mass shootings and bombs, authorities say. 

Schools in Tenafly, Leonia, Bergenfield, Teaneck, Garfield, Clifton, Fair Lawn, Englewood, Hackensack and Sayreville were either evacuated or placed on lockdown for at least some time Tuesday morning after schools received the threats, authorities say. But the more than 10,000 students who were affected were able to continue their days once officials determined the threats to be part of a hoax.

In each instance, officials say someone claiming to have planted a bomb or was planning mass shootings, authorities said.

All of the threats sounded similar to an automated robotic call and had been left as voicemail messages, authorities said. According to Bergen County Sheriff Michael Saudino says the messages appear to have been routed through Bakersfield, California.

In Bergenfield, students were forced to huddle together outside on a day with wind chills in the teens while tactical crews swept through the schools for signs of a threat.  They spent more than an hour in the cold -- some students without jackets -- before walking to a nearby middle school.

"Everyone was cold," said Amber Morales, a senior. "Teachers were handing out blankets; people were sharing sweaters."

Most of the students lost an entire day of instruction due to the threats, officials said. Hundreds of students also decided to head home out of fear.

Schools in several other states in the Northeast and Iowa also reported threats Tuesday morning. It was not immediately clear if the threats were linked, authorities said.

Schools in several communities in the Northeast were evacuated or locked down Tuesday amid threats of violence.

It's unclear if any of the threats are connected. Law enforcement sources have said the FBI is monitoring the threats while local police lead the investigations, according to NBC News and NBC 4 New York.

DELAWARE

Three schools in Delaware have been evacuated, including Long Neck Elementary School in Millsboro, Woodbridge High School in Greenwood and Silverlake Elementary School in Middletown, according to state police.

A fourth — Rehoboth Elementary School in Rehoboth Beach — also received a threatening message, according to State Sen. Ernesto Lopez, who called the perpetrator a "coward" who would be "prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law."

Local police departments send K-9s to sweep the school campuses.

The superintendent at Silverlake said in a message to parents the threat was made during a robo-call Tuesday morning and the situation was "under control," NBC 10 Philadelphia reports. Police have not revealed details of the other threats to Delaware schools.

State police said each threat came in the form of a robo-call.

PENNSYLVANIA

At least one school district in Pennsylvania was evacuated Tuesday.

Officials with the Chichester School District in Delaware County urged parents against driving to school to pick up their children while police investigated, according to NBC 10 Philadelphia. 

NEW JERSEY

Meanwhile, at least 10 schools in Bergen County, New Jersey, received bomb threats or mass shooting threats Tuesday, NBC 4 New York reported.

New Jersey officials said schools in Sayreville, Teaneck, Garfield, Tenafly, Clifton, Fair Lawn, Leonia, Bergenfield, Englewood and Hackensack received threats from someone who claimed to have planted bombs or threatened a mass shooting.

Authorities initially said New Milford also received a threat, but the superintendent said that wasn't the case.

At least three schools received threats over voicemail that appear to have been routed through Bakersfield, California, according to the Bergen County sheriff.

A police source familiar with the investigation told NBC 4 New York four of the affected schools had been cleared by law enforcement and the other five are expected to be cleared shortly.

Police in Clifton said there was "no indication of any validity to the threat."

MASSACHUSETTS

Students were evacuated Tuesday from at least five schools in Massachusetts, including Arlington High School, Groton Middle School, the Florence Roche School in Groton, Fitzgerald Elementary School in Waltham and the Ayer-Shirley Regional High School, where students were moved to a nearby elementary school.

Authorities are also responding to schools in Tewksbury and Newton.

The superintendent of Taunton Public Schools received a threatening call Monday night, prompting police to send officers to the school Tuesday morning. Authorities determined the message was not specific to Taunton and school remained in session.

The FBI is helping police investigate the threats in Massachusetts, but officials told necn they believe the threats are not credible. 

PRIOR THREATS

It's the second time in as many weeks that threatening messages have targeted a number of schools in Massachusetts and Delaware.

Four schools in Delaware received bomb threats last Monday, according to a news release posted on the state police Facebook page.

Threats also targeted schools in at least nine Massachusetts communities on Friday, prompting several to evacuate. Many were deemed unfounded.

The biggest headline came last month, when education officials in Los Angeles received an email threatening weapons and explosive devices, prompting the city to shutter all 900 of its public schools.

The threat was found to be a hoax, as was a nearly identical threat sent to New York City schools the same day.

Four Delaware schools and at least one Pennsylvania district joined a growing list of schools around the northeastern United States that dealt with threats Tuesday. In these cases, each school received a threat from a robotic-sounding voice, said Delaware State Police.

Police evacuated Long Neck Elementary School in Millsboro; Silverlake Elementary School in Middletown; and Woodbridge High School in Greenwood so that officers and K-9 units could investigate threats.

The Appoquinimink School District alerted parents at Silverlake that the school received a robo-call threat this morning and that students were evacuated on school buses. "The situation is under control, and students are safe and well cared for," said superintendent Matthew Burrows. "As soon as we receive appropriate reassurances, we will re-enter the building."

None of the searches turned anything up, said police.

Long Neck called it a low-level lockdown and planned to return students to the classroom after police said caller threatened to "do harm to the students and faculty." Woodbridge said that it was a teacher in-service day so no students were at the school.

Rehoboth Elementary School in Rehoboth Beach also received a threat from a "coward," said state Sen. Ernesto Lopez (R-6th District). "Let me make something perfectly clear to those who continue to try to instill fear into moms and dads, grandparents and our community as a whole: your actions are despicable and when you are discovered you will be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law," said Lopez.

A threat also put the Chichester School District in Delaware County, Pennsylvania on alert. The district asked parents NOT to pick up their children as police investigated the threat while students evacuated.

At least nine schools in North Jersey received threats that included bomb threats and mass shooting threats, reported NBC New York.

Threats also caused concern at some Massachusetts schools, said police.

Investigators worked to determine if the threats are connected.
 

Charges are expected to be filed against the owners of two dogs who died after being left outside during dangerously cold temperatures in South Jersey.

Atlantic County SPCA investigators responded to an anonymous call about a puppy frozen inside its dog house off Jackson Road in Buena Vista Township Monday. When they arrived they found the puppy’s body as well as a female dog who was cold and malnourished. She was taken to a veterinary clinic where she died overnight.

“Honestly I barely slept last night and I woke up this morning to news that the second dog has passed away,” said Atlantic County SPCA Humane Law Enforcement Agent Kate Warden.

Authorities say the puppy appeared to be less than six-months-old and underweight and both dogs’ water bowls were only filled with ice. Officials would not reveal the identity of the dogs’ owners because they’re still preparing to file animal cruelty charges, including failure to provide proper shelter, adequate food and veterinary care.

“Please bring your animals indoors,” Warden said. “There is no excuse to have more animals dying in this extreme cold weather.”

Investigators are hoping the results of the necropsies (animal autopsies) will be revealed Wednesday and plan to file charges after.