SHIFT IN TRACK-NO SURPRISE

In yesterday’s blog, I talked about how difficult Erika’s forecast was going to be. The intensity uncertainty was even higher than usual. And even though the computer forecast tracks looked similar, I said they couldn’t be trusted, since Erika was so disorganized. Now, less than 24 hours later, the computer forecast tracks AND the official National Hurricane Center track have shifted well to the left. This was no surprise. From yesterday’s blog:

“So far, Erika has been weak enough to be steered straight west. As long as it stays weak and disorganized, it should track more to the left than most computer models say”

“….Erika to track more to the left, move near the mountainous islands from Puerto Rico to Cuba, and be so disorganized that it won’t be able to recover. There’s at least a 30% chance of that happening”

SHOULD WE PUBLICLY DISAGREE WITH “OFFICIAL” FORECASTS?

This has always been a tough one for me, since worked at the National Hurricane Center long ago. I’ve been there when these potentially life-saving forecasts are made, and have admired many of the Hurricane Specialists there. Disagreeing publicly with NHC and downplaying a hurricane that gets worse can have fatal consequences. Studies have shown that many people, when faced with conflicting forecasts, will choose to follow the least threatening. Imagine if some local TV weathercaster downplayed Sandy, or Katrina, or Andrew. Basically, if we disagree significantly, we better be right.

But it depends on where you’re working. When I worked at AccuWeather (also long ago), we were encouraged to emphasize our disagreement with NHC or other National Weather Service forecasts. They used to take out huge newspaper ads bragging of their “victories”. They still disagree at times, but don’t seem to be as aggressive as they used to be. On the other hand, some other private sector meteorologists slam NHC sharply at times. Erika has been one of those times. One well-known meteorologist admitted he was on a “rant” and asked of NHC: “are they drunk?”

IT’S DIFFERENT ON TV

I’m not the only one who saw that the weak Erika was likely to follow the lower-level winds and steer well west of the NHC forecast (as demonstrated above). But what do we say, and how do we say it? How subtle do we need to be? Or can we emphasize our disagreement, with confidence that we are right and NHC is wrong? Remember, TV weathercasters are ad-libbing. There is no script. Sometimes words slip out that we regret later. In the rare times I publicly disagree (as with Erika), I try to prepare the phrasing a bit, so I don’t end up slapping myself for even one wrong word on-air.

The safe thing is clearly to show the NHC forecast on TV, and just “go with it”. Most do. But are we really serving our viewers by putting something on TV that we don’t agree with? Is it different for those of us with degrees in Meteorology and many years of experience in tropical forecasting?

In retrospect, I wish I had disagreed more publicly with Hurricane Irene in 2011. It was a category 3 major hurricane as it traveled north and hit near the North Carolina Outer Banks. And it was predicted to move up along the East Coast, directly affecting New Jersey and Delaware. It’s always a big deal when a hurricane comes up this way. But some hurricanes are different than others. Previous hurricanes taking this track have caused wind damage, depending on how strong they were (the 1944 storm destroyed much of the Atlantic City boardwalk). 

But that track does not produce big storm surges (which was the worst part of Sandy). Tracking so close to land leads to weakening. Yet ALL of Cape May County was evacuated. When I heard that, I almost didn’t believe it! Why was this necessary? This was not a “worst-case scenario”. The whole county? Yes, there would be wind damage, but….

So, now what do I do? The newscasters read the story about the government ordering the evacuation. But when they did the “toss” to me, I went right into the weathercast, just talking about the facts. Careful wording can help enhance or “play down” the threat, and I tried to make sure our viewers would not expect a “historic storm” at the shore. And indeed, Irene was not “historic” for the Jersey Shore. A lot of people mentioned Irene a year later when they were asked why they didn’t evacuate for Sandy. The over-forecasting of Irene clearly led to an under-estimation of the threat of “the big one” (which took the worst-case track).

SO, WHAT ABOUT ERIKA NOW?

Even a 2nd grader could see that not a single computer model predicted that Erika would track south of Puerto Rico (it has). Not a single one predicted a track over or south of the Dominican Republic (it is). Not a single computer model predicted a track over part of Cuba (it might). So, why would we trust any computer model now-especially the ones that track Erika well east of Florida? I’m not.

Once again, the weak, dis-organized storms tend to move to the left of the computer models. Since it is still weak, I would expect moving near the Dominican Republic and Haiti with their high mountains will weaken Erika even more. Maybe it will just be an unorganized blob of thunderstorms by Sunday. It sure doesn’t look like it will be able to get itself together fast enough to strengthen into a hurricane by that time. This lessens the wind and storm surge threat to Florida for now, but they could still get a LOT of rain in some places. South Florida is in a severe drought and needs rain, so it’s possible Erika could turn out to be helpful there.

Here are the 2pm Friday computer model forecasts. Notice that many now take Erika into the Gulf of Mexico. Very weak wind shear is predicted in the Eastern Gulf early next week, which would make conditions favorable for strengthening (very warm water, too). The Central and Western Gulf should have high wind shear, limiting Erika’s potential.

Police said that a popular Main Line Chinese restaurant, once named the nation's best, closed after an infestation of roaches has made improvements and could open as early as next week.

But, that didn't stop Radnor Township from citing Yangming for a trio of charges including failure to control insects or rodents, improper food storage and keeping food in unsanitary conditions, said Radnor Township Police Superintendent Bill Colarulo.

Radnor Township health officials closed Yangming indefinitely on Aug. 18 and posted a health citation in the front window that listed "Gross Facility & Equipment Sanitation" and "Insect/Rodent Infestation" as reasons for the closure.

The next day, police could be seen pulling roaches from the restaurant, which was originally closed down briefly on Aug. 14 after a teenage customer twice found a roach in her food.

When officers arrived, "there were roaches that were in plain sight" in the kitchen, said Radnor Police Lt. Andy Block.

"What we found today was deplorable, so imagine what it looked like five days ago when it's still deplorable -- we're pulling out roaches and expired food," said Radnor Police Chief William Colarulo last Tuesday.

On Tuesday, the restaurant told NBC10 that they were still working to get the restaurant reopen. The restaurant said they already made tens of thousands of dollars of repairs to their out-of-date HVAC and exhaust systems, to the electrical and plumbing systems, to remove and clean equipment and also made improvements to meet fire regulations.

Colarulo said Friday that the restaurant has made improvements to its nearly 100-year-old building and that a more thorough inspection revealed the building violations weren't as serious as first thought.

He said Yangming could reopen next week.

Earlier this week, Yangming apologized for the infestation and said it hoped to regain the trust of its patrons.

The eatery, popular among Main Liners and area college students, has a history of praise. In 2011, Yangming beat out about 45,000 other eateries to top Chinese Restaurant News’ “Best Chinese Restaurant” list.

A South Jersey mother returned from work to her apartment to find a man leaning into her 6-year-old daughter’s bedroom window.

The girl told police that the man opened her first-floor window of the L Building of the Washington Way apartments along Barnsboro Road in Blackwood late Wednesday night and told her he was a doctor and a friend of her father's who she could call “Joe,” said Washington Township Police.

Before being scared off by the girl’s mother calling police around 10:45 p.m., the creeper took a cellphone photo of the girl and made a disturbing promise, the girl's mother exclusively told NBC10's George Spencer.

"He said that as long as you don't tell, I can come back every night," said the girl’s mother who asked not to be identified.

The mother also said she saw the same man wandering around the apartment complex the day before and when confronted claimed he lived in the complex.

Police described “Joe” as being in his late 20s to early 30s with light brown hair faded on the side and little longer on top who has a close cut beard. Investigators released a sketch of “Joe” in hopes of capturing him.

The luring left the woman and her daughter shaken.

"I think she's just very confused because someone tried to make her feel like he was a friend," said the mother. "But we try to make her understand that he was a bad person."

Anyone with information is asked to contact Washington Township Detective Bureau Lt. Steve Rolando at 856-589-0330.

An armed man in a Phillies hat robbed and bound two women and a man and then sexually assaulted one of the women after starting up a conversation in an area known as Graffiti Pier.

The heist and sex assault played out around 6:30 p.m. Sunday at Cumberland Street near where it reaches the Delaware River in city’s Port Richmond section, said Philadelphia Police Special Victims Unit.

The robber pulled a gun and then led the victims, who are all in their 20s, to a wooded area where he took their cellphones, wallets, IDs and cash. The robber then sexually assaulted one of the women then bound the victims with their own clothing before fleeing toward Richmond Street, said police.

Investigators described the man of being in his early 30s with a stocky build, weighing around 230 pounds and standing around 5-foot, 9-inches tall with light brown hair and light beard. He wore a Phillies cap with a red “P” on it, a white tank top and blue jean shorts during the attack.

Police asked anyone with information to call Det. McGoldrick at: 215-685-3253/54 or to call 911 if they see him.

If you’re planning on crossing the Delaware River sometime this weekend, you may want to steer clear of the Delaware Memorial Bridge.

That’s because a tower-painting project has closed down a lane in each direction of the bridge, resulting in possible traffic delays. The closures will last from Friday through Sunday. Contractors are working on painting the Bridge Towers of both the northbound span into New Jersey and the southbound span into Delaware.

Officials said that drivers can expect the worst delays during peak weekend traveling times -- 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. on Saturday and 10 a.m. to 7 p.m. on Sunday.

While the project is expected to last until November, it will be suspended for the Memorial Day Weekend and the upcoming Papal visit.

A former South Jersey police officer suffering from a degenerative condition who wants his job back is suing his former boss for making unwanted sexual advances.

“He never wanted to miss a single day of work,” said attorney Zach Wall.

Wall’s client, former Haddon Township Police Officer Jason DeMent, recently sued Chief Mark Cavallo and the township in hopes of getting back his job so he can support his wife and daughters.

“Officer DeMent’s complaint alleges a string of unwanted sexual touchings and unwanted sexual comments,” Wall told NBC10’s Cydney Long on Friday.

Some of the alleged comments include “do you want to lock the door and pull down the blinds, baby,” according to the suit filed in U.S. District Court.

DeMent, 36, who is slowly losing his vision isn’t looking for desk duty but for the support to battle Stargardt disease, which slowly diminishes his vision.

“I am not asking for modified duty for the remainder of my career,” said DeMent in a prepared statement. “I am simply asking for reasonable accommodation while I seek treatment to defeat this rare disease. I am not asking for special treatment or an easier schedule. I love my job and I love this Township, which is why I moved my family here. I truly hope that the Township considers all the facts of my situation and allows me to resume working immediately.”

The 14-year-veteran’s job, however, was posted the day after he was let go in June, said DeMent’s suit.

DeMent claims the firing came after he refused Cavallo’s advances including the chief saying DeMent is “cute” and handsome” while touching the officer inappropriately, alleges the suit. DeMent also claimed that his boss said, “talk dirty to me baby.”

“It happened repeatedly,” said Wall. “…The chief was his boss and Officer DeMent basically felt helpless.”

Attempts by NBC10 to reach Cavallo on Friday by phone and in person were unsuccessful.

"Mr. DeMent's allegations are without merit, and both Haddon Township and Chief Cavallo intend to defend this matter vigorously," said township solicitor Eric Riso.

DeMent said he had no plan to back down.

“I have pleaded for the township and the police chief to assist me in this extremely difficult time, and requested that I may be approved for light duty so that I could continue to work and support my wife and daughters.”

His accrued vacation and medical leave runs out in October.

DeMent, who is president of his union, says the department’s policy is discriminatory. He's suing for lost wages, emotional distress and would like a jury trial.

One person was injured and nearly two dozen people are displaced after a fire ripped through an apartment complex in Northeast Philadelphia early Saturday morning.

The fire started about 3:20 a.m. at the Beechwood Gardens apartment complex in the 9800 block of Haldeman Avenue in the city’s Bustleton section.

Fire officials believe the blaze started in a storage area in the basement of the apartment complex.

Firefighters were able to place the fire under control in about 45 minutes.

Fire officials say 10 units were damaged during the fire and nearly two dozen residents are displaced. A fire official at the scene told NBC10 that residents will likely not be able to re-enter their apartments for at least a week.

One person was taken to a nearby hospital for treatment of smoke inhalation.

Officials with the Red Cross are expected to assist the displaced residents.

The cause of the fire is under investigation.

A female bicyclist suffered broken bones after she was struck by a car in downtown Philadelphia early Saturday morning.

The incident happened about 12:30 a.m. at 22nd Street and the Ben Franklin Parkway in Center City.

Investigators say the female was riding her bike when she was struck by a car. The female was taken to nearby Hahnemann University Hospital for treatment of several broken bones.

The driver, according to police, stopped at the scene.

So far, no charges have been filed.

The incident remains under investigation.

Police are searching for a suspect who shot and pistol-whipped a man in Philadelphia early Saturday morning.

The incident happened shortly after 2 a.m. in the 300 block of Elwood Street in the city’s Logan section.

According to investigators, a male was getting out of a car when he was approached by a man with gun.

The suspect pistol-whipped the male before he shot him in the leg, police said.

The male was taken to Albert Einstein Medical Center in critical condition.

The suspect remains on the loose.

A motive in the shooting was not immediately known.

The shooting remains under investigation.

A 17-year-old from Delaware has been charged with impersonating an officer.

The arrest centers around an incident that occurred about 12:10 a.m. on August 24 on Bayside Drive (SR9) just north of North Little Creek Road in Dover.

The incident began when the car a 24-year-old female was traveling behind pulled to the right shoulder to allow her to pass.

Once around the vehicle, which later turned out to be a tan Chevrolet Impala, the car pulled back out behind her and activated strobe lights that were placed in the grill and windshield.

Thinking that the car was a police officer, the female pulled to the shoulder, but the car passed by her. As the female continued northbound, she observed the car once again on the shoulder with its light out. When she passed by the Impala, it again pulled out behind her and activated the strobe lights. This time the female did not pull over and the car pulled alongside of her in a no passing zone for a few seconds before passing her.

The female called 911 to report the incident and described the car to police.

A short time later, the car was pulled over by officers with the Smyrna Police Department.

Edward Steele Jr., of Smyrna, was taken into custody. He has been charged with Criminal Impersonation of a Police Officer (Felony), Disorderly Conduct, Driving without a Valid License, Driving in a No Passing Zone and Unauthorized Flashing Lights.

Delaware State Police are asking anyone who may have had similar incidents involving the tan Chevrolet Impala to contact Trooper S. Douglas from Troop 9 at 302-378-5749.