A piece of it has already produced flooding in Southern California and Las Vegas. Another piece has led to freezing rain on roads in North Texas. That’s pretty impressive for a storm system already.
Soon it will get the chance to pick up moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. That adds up to a big, wet storm moving our way next week.
That’s the easy part.
Sometimes the biggest storms are the easiest ones to forecast. Lots of moisture; a large area affected; cold in advance and behind the storm. But, as usual, it’s the details that make forecasting tricky.
Here’s what we’re most sure about:
Here’s what’s still in question:
Because there is no blocking pattern in the atmosphere, the storm will move very quickly, which will limit the amount of snow that would fall. That’s different than a typical early-season storm.
We usually see a strong, slow-moving upper-air low moving right across our area.
The only reason for the snow threat this time is the unseasonable chill ahead and behind the storm.
It is still about five days until we feel the brunt of the storm. Especially early in the season, with nearby ocean temperatures near 50-degrees, predicting snow amounts would be foolhardy.
It certainly looks like the best chance of accumulating snow in our area is in the Poconos, with other areas well N&W of Philadelphia (especially in higher elevations) having the next best chance. The lowest chances are at the Jersey Shore & Delaware Beaches.
We should know more of the details each day as the busy travel times approach.
The first projects that'll be funded by a major transportation bill will touch nearly every corner of Pennsylvania.
The bill, which Gov. Tom Corbett will sign next week, is expected to marshal another $2.3 billion a year for transportation in Pennsylvania from higher gas taxes and motorist fees.
The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation says it'll immediately start replacing a Route 422 bridge over the Schuylkill River and a bridge carrying Route 23 over Route 422 in Montgomery County.
The Southeastern Pennsylvania Transportation Authority (SEPTA) says it'll overhaul four bridges on its Delaware County commuter line and upgrade its Philadelphia City Hall station.
It'll repair the Birmingham Bridge in Pittsburgh, widen a section of Route 22 in Allentown, rehab part of Route 219 near Johnstown and expand Interstate 81 in suburban Harrisburg.
Over the next five years, the gas tax will increase by an additional .25-cents a gallon across the Commonwealth.
Reynaldo Torres has been missing since last May and now it appears part of his jaw may have been unearthed during a probe into an alleged crooked former Philadelphia homicide detective.
Multiple law enforcement sources tell NBC10 that Torres' dental records match the lower jawbone found in a dirt alley behind a baseball field at 4th and Westmoreland Streets last Friday afternoon.
Crime scene investigators were digging for evidence at that scene last week as they investigate whether homicide detective Ron Dove may have withheld evidence during his investigation into Torres' disappearance.
Sources say the jawbone found has two missing teeth, including one in the same spot where the father of three had a wisdom tooth removed.
Torres disappeared along with 22-year-old Melanie Colon on May 8 after getting into a gold Mazda.
Colon's body was later found in a wooded area behind an apartment complex, but Torres' remains missing.
"Even though I want closure, I don't want anybody to come and tell me we found a piece of our brother," Torres' sister Melissa Ruiz told NBC10's Nefertiti Jacquez on Friday.
Speaking for the first time since her brother went missing, Ruiz says detectives came to her home and collected a DNA sample.
"It was horrible and I was crying," she said. "My gut tells me it might be him. For the detectives to come and swab you means there is more to it."
Ruiz said detectives also plan to collect DNA samples from their mother, who currently lives in Puerto Rico, and Torres' daughter.
The results of the DNA tests are expected to be returned in the next month.
As detectives work to determine whether the jawbone belongs to Torres, invest gators continue to take a second look at cases handled by Dove.
Sources tell NBC10 Dove is suspected of covering up three murders and Torres' disappearance.
The 16-year veteran has been suspended with the intent to dismiss for allegedly lying to police. Officials say Dove helped his girlfriend, 33-year-old Erica Sanchez, in the hours after she allegedly murdered her ex-husband, Cesar Vera, in September.
A man is in the hospital after a police-involved shooting in Coatesville.
Investigators say an unidentified man was shot by police in the area of 7th Avenue and Merchant Street around 1 a.m.
The man survived the shooting and was taken to the hospital. He's listed in stable condition.
Prosecutors say no officers were injured.
Chester County detectives are investigating what led to the shooting.
Stay with NBC10.com for more details on this developing story.
Also on NBC10.com:
Police are investigating a car accident that sent four people to the hospital.
The vehicle was traveling on Tookany Creek Parkway and Central Avenue in Cheltenham on Saturday around 3:20 a.m. when the driver somehow lost control. The vehicle went off the road and crashed into a wooded area.
Officials say at least four people suffered non-life-threatening injuries and were taken to Abington Hospital.
Officials continue to investigate the cause of the crash.
Also on NBC10.com:
State Police arrested a registered sex offender accused of having sex with an underage girl.
Officials say the investigation began on October 23 after a state trooper was dispatched to a home on the unit block of Country Side in Felton, Delaware for a report of a possible trespass complaint.
When the trooper arrived, police say he was met by 29-year-old Edward Bassett, who lived in the development with his mother and three children.
Officials say Bassett told the trooper that a 14-year-old female runaway from the Middletown area had been living in his home since July of 2013 and that detectives had been at his home earlier looking for her. Police say the teen was picked up earlier that afternoon by police near a Walmart and returned to her home safely.
Bassett was not charged with any crime at the time. That changed however after detectives followed up on the incident to investigate allegations that Bassett and the girl were involved sexually.
Police say an investigation revealed that Bassett is a Tier II (medium risk) sex offender who was convicted in December of 1997 for unlawful sexual contact. According to investigators, Bassett befriended the 14-year-old girl on Facebook about a year ago. Police say the teen girl ran away from her home to live with Bassett and the two became involved in a sexual relationship over a one-month period.
Bassett was arrested on Friday and charged with rape and unlawful sexual contact by a sex offender. He was arraigned and committed to the James. T. Vaughn Correctional Center on $580,000 secured bond.
NBC10’s own Vai Sikahema was honored last night by the Broadcast Pioneers. Vai was inducted into the organization’s Hall of Fame during an award ceremony at the Hilton Hotel on City Avenue in Wynnefield Heights.
Born in Nuku’alofa, the capital of Tonga, in 1962, Vai moved to America at the age of 7. He attended Brigham Young University where he played football and earned a degree in Broadcast Journalism. While playing with BYU, he helped the Cougars win the national championship in 1984 and is a member of the school’s Hall of Fame.
Vai also enjoyed a successful NFL career as a running back and kickoff returner from 1986 to 1993, including two years with the Eagles. During his career, he was selected to two Pro Bowls and is among the NFL’s all-time leaders in number of punt returns and second in punt return yardage.
Football wasn’t the only sport Vai excelled at. Growing up, he wanted to be a professional boxer and boxed at an amateur level for several years. He fought against former baseball player Jose Canseco in a memorable celebrity boxing match back in 2008, winning by first round knockout. Vai ended up donating his winnings to the family of Sergeant Stephen Liczbinski, a fallen Philadelphia Police Officer.
Vai joined NBC10 in 1994. He serves as our Sports Director and also co-anchors our afternoon newscast, showcasing his versatile skills as both a sports reporter and news anchor.
During his career with NBC10, Vai has covered several Olympic games as well as all of the city’s local sports teams. Vai also hosts our weekly “Wednesday’s Child” segments, our program which promotes the adoption of children from our area. In 2011, he was honored by the Congressional Caucus of Adoption in Washington, D.C. for his work with the program.
Vai won two Emmys for his work in television. He also won the Deseret News President’s Award in Salt Lake City, Utah back in 2012 for his weekly column, “Vai’s View.”
Vai currently lives in New Jersey with his wife, Keala. The two serve in leadership positions in their church and are also active in Boys Scouts of America as well as the United Way, dedicating their lives to finding forever homes for at-risk children through adoption.
Despite his many personal and professional accomplishments, including the recent hall of fame induction, Vai remains humble and thanked those who helped him throughout his career.
“I never really took any classes in broadcasting college.,” Vai said. “So all the people who have taught me television are all the people here at NBC10. The producers, the photographers, everyone here has really taught me journalism. I appreciate that so much. I try hard and I work hard. I love the job.”
The entire NBC10 family congratulates Vai for a job well done!
Police say a homeless man has been charged with attempted murder for allegedly pushing a 72-year-old man onto a subway platform in Manhattan Friday afternoon.
WATCH: Cyclist Attacked in "Knockout Game"
Rudralall Baldao, 57, was also charged with assault for shoving the man onto the train platform at 145th Street and St. Nicholas Avenue at around 4:30 p.m.
Police say straphangers at the station helped the man, who had been waiting for the A train with his wife, back up before a train came.
He remained hospitalized Saturday, having suffered a fractured skull and broken collarbone.
Information on a lawyer for Baldao was not immediately available.
A man is fighting for his life after a shooting in the Frankford section of the city.
Police say the man was inside a home on Tackawanna and Ruan Streets around midnight on Saturday when an unknown gunman opened fire.
Police say bullets struck inside and outside the home and the man was struck several times. The victim was taken to the hospital where he is in critical condition.
No arrests have been made. Police have not yet released information on any suspects.
Stay with NBC10.com for more details on this developing story.
Also on NBC10.com:
Philadelphia Police are searching for the men who robbed a Dunkin Donuts on Saturday afternoon.
Police say the suspects entered the store on E. Waddsworth Avenue in the Cedarbrook section of the city around 2:00 p.m. Authorities are now reviewing surveillance video of the robbery.
The manager of the shop tells NBC10 that two of the men entered first and pretended to be customers. A third man followed with a gun and ordered all the customers to the ground, the manager said.
There were about 5 customers in the shop at the time of the robbery.
After grabbing the cash, the robbers jumped into a getaway car. Police say they made off with about $2,000 dollars.
MORE NEWS:
One man is killed after crashing into a U-Haul truck at a Philadelphia intersection that neighbors describe as "dangerous."
WATCH: Teens Killed in Crash, Team Moves On
Police sources tell NBC10 that the man who died was driving a stolen car when he went through a stop sign at Princeton and Summerdale Avenues in the city's Oxford Circle section.
The driver of that car, who hasn't yet been identified, died at the scene after hitting the U-Haul.
Neighbors tell NBC10 this is a problem intersection and want the city to put up a light or another stop sign.
"Neighbors have tried with petitions, we have begged somebody to do something, it's a bad corner," said Myrna Freedman, who has lived near this intersection since 1976.
The driver of the U-Haul truck was taken to the hospital and treated for head, neck and back injuries. He is currently in stable condition.
Also on NBC10.com:
Police on Long Island say a deli owner and his son are under arrest for scamming a customer out of a $1 million lottery ticket.
WATCH: Cyclist Attacked in "Knockout Game"
Nassau County police say a 34-year-old man bought the ticket Thursday.
Police say the man scratched off his card and saw that he was a winner. He handed it to 26-year-old Karim Jaghab to get his winnings.
Police say the ticket was worth $1 million but Jaghab gave the man $1,000 in cash and kept the ticket.
The customer went back Friday. Police say Jaghab and his 57-year-old father Nabil Jaghab tried to give him $10,000.
The Jaghabs were arraigned Saturday on grand larceny charges. According to Newsday, their attorney said it was a simple mistake on a payout on a lottery machine.
It’s been all or nothing for winter snow in Philadelphia for the past 4 years. In fact, we’ve only had one seasonal snowfall anywhere close to average in the past 7 years. What’s going on?
2009-10 78”+
2010-11 44”
2011-12 4”
2012-13 8”
Things have really changed. As I explained last year, some of the “rules” of winter forecasting no longer seem to apply. I speculated that it might have something to do with the unbelievably fast ice melt in the Arctic.
The ice melt has accelerated since about 2009, and we’ve seen dramatic changes in weather patterns since then. No one can prove that one is the direct cause of the other, but it seems logical that there is at least some connection.
THE AO, NAO, & SAI:
My friend at The Weather Channel, Stu Ostro, has documented changes in the Arctic and surrounding areas, largely related to HIGH pressure. Big highs to the north force storm tracks farther south. This seems to be connected to the huge snow seasons here in 2009-10 and 2010-11. High pressure in the Arctic leads to a “negative AO”, or Arctic Oscillation. The –AO is clearly connected to increased snowstorm chances in our area. It is also related to the –NAO, or North Atlantic Oscillation, which has an even stronger connection with our snowstorms. If we can predict whether the AO and/or NAO will be positive or negative, we can do a good job in predicting the upcoming winter overall. Winters with an overall +AO have very low chances of being big snow winters, and the higher the AO, the lower the chance.
Until recently, the AO and NAO were thought to be basically unpredictable beyond 2 weeks. But some new research (some published; some not) suggests that has changed, too.
The first breakthrough came from Dr. Judah Cohen from a company called AER. His research found a connection between October snow across the globe in Eurasia and winter snow in the Northeast U.S. I heard about his research long before it was published, so I’ve been following him for nearly 10 years. It has been a better predictor than anything else I’ve seen. Look at how well he did worldwide for last winter!
The one area he did badly was the U.S. Of course, most of us don’t care about any other part of the earth, so the forecast was a “bust” here.
But even Dr. Cohen’s method has changed. He used to look at total snow cover at the end of October. Now it’s the rate of change of the snow during October. That makes a difference this year, so, even though the Eurasia snow was the 4th most ever recorded, the rate of change wasn’t very large. His new forecast tool is called the SAI (Snow Advance Index). That strongly favors a +AO overall for the winter. But he admits that it conflicts with the total Eurasia snow cover, and that’s the first time he’s seen that strong a difference. He still says other factors lead him to predict a +AO. (My forecast was made 24 hours before Dr. Cohen was quoted on this subject and the coming winter. His quotes have not led to any changes in anything below - OR my final forecast)
Here’s a graph of the correlation between SAI and AO:
That’s pretty impressive. But it’s still not as impressive as what’s next.
The OPI-something new (and foreign):
Not all forecast advances occur in the U.S. Europe has the best overall computer model (The European, or ECMWF). Now an Italian meteorologist named Riccardo Valente and some colleagues have developed an index called the OPI (October Pattern Index). Instead of tracking October snow in Eurasia, this one looks at upper-air patterns.
What has caught the eye of so many forecasters in the Eastern U.S. is the correlation Riccardo has found between the OPI and the overall winter AO. Take a look at this graphic he supplied:
It’s amazing how close those lines are to each other-and even closer in the past 10 years. This work has not been peer reviewed and published yet, so it has some people skeptical. But my interest is always to explore new research and test it myself, published or not. Remember, that’s how I was talking about Eurasian snow in October years before it became common knowledge.
If the OPI is right, the Arctic Oscillation will be clearly positive overall this winter. That doesn’t mean we get zero snow and cold. It means the odds strongly favor LESS snow than our average of 22". All it takes is one big storm during a temporary -- AO pattern to add a lot of inches to our seasonal total.
Meteorology is not an exact, precise science (you probably know that already), and seasonal forecasting is even more difficult. So we use percentages and "play the odds." When both the SAI and OPI suggest odds favor milder, less snowy weather, it makes sense not to ignore it.
El Nino or La Nina? or Neither?
In the past, I never would have waited this long to start talking about El Nino/La Nina. It used to be the first thing I looked at. But not anymore-not unless it’s a pretty strong El Nino or La Nina (the opposite). It’s just become more obvious that our nearby North Atlantic/Arctic have become more important overall.
We can’t ignore the Pacific, of course, but if we have "neutral" conditions, how does that help us? Ocean temperatures in the Tropical Pacific were neutral last winter, and may be again this time. Here’s the latest map of ocean temps compared to normal:
If anything, it’s a weak La Nina (colder than normal). But not far beneath the surface, there’s plenty of unusually warm water:
Computer model forecasts keep conditions at the surface neutral throughout winter, but if some of that warm water gets up to the surface, things change. As we’ve seen in the past, El Nino forecasts are far from perfect.
Other Parts of the Pacific:
Sometimes forecasters get so focused on the Tropical Pacific with El Nino that other areas are ignored. And there are more indices that describe them: PDO and EPO in longer terms, and the PNA in the short-term.
The PNA is pretty simple: a ridge of high pressure in the western U.S. is a +PNA, and it leads to colder and sometimes snowier weather in the East. But the PNA varies a lot during the winter, so it doesn’t do us much good as a seasonal forecast aid.
The PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) covers much of the Pacific between the tropics and the Arctic. A -PDO tends to lead to milder, less snowy winters around here, and a +PDO trends the opposite way. We’ve had a -PDO the past 2 winters, which corresponds with the lack of snow, but it was also negative in 2010-11 when we had 44”. The PDO should be negative overall this winter.
The EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation) covers a smaller area in the North Pacific, closer to the U.S. Coast, so maybe that’s why it correlates better with seasonal weather here. A –EPO leads to cold weather tendencies in much of the U.S. (including here) for all 3 winter months. But it’s far from fool-proof: it was clearly negative two winters ago, and it was a very mild winter. That may have been because a very negative AO dominated everything. The EPO should be negative this winter.
Putting it all together:
So, let’s summarize the factors and what they suggest (in general):
SAI - "Mild" winter
OPI - "Mild"
El Nino - Neutral
PDO - "Mild"
EPO “Harsh”
Overall, it’s a tendency toward above average temperatures and below average snow. But it’s not that simple.
Here's what I expect:
- Even more extreme temperature fluctuations than normal-very warm, followed by very cold
- Fewer blocking patterns than the past few years. Neither cold nor warm spells will last for weeks
- N&W areas will be closest to average snowfall, while S&E areas will see well below normal snowfall
The Details:
SNOWFALL
Philadelphia 14-18” (average is 22”)
Allentown 30-34” (average is 34”)
Atlantic City 10-14” (average is 17”)
Wilmington 12-16” (average is 21”)
TEMPERATURES
December - +1 degrees
January - +2
February - -1
March - +2
What could go wrong? (Or right, depending on how you feel about winter):
- The total October Eurasian snow cover could be more of a factor than the snow increase (would lead to more snow)
- An El Nino develops as that extra warm subsurface water makes it to the surface (more snow)
- The PDO changes to positive (colder)
(If somehow all 3 of those things happen, it could be another one of those big winters. I’ll keep you updated on any changes)
Police say the beating of a cyclist along a Philadelphia street was not part of the nationwide "knockout game" trend as they initially believed.
The male victim was riding his bike along 13th and Catherine Streets in the Bella Vista section of the city just before 8 p.m. on Friday when he was randomly punched by a group of teens, police said.
"One guy and two of his friends came to shake me off my bike and started hitting me while I was down," said the victim, who did not want to be identified.
After being hit, the cyclist says he asked the group -- made up of five teen boys and three teen girls -- why they hit him. Without answering, the group then continued beating the man.
The victim met up with police at Broad and Carpenter Streets following the attack. While he was shaken, his injuries were not life-threatening and he did not need to be hospitalized.
Philadelphia detectives initially told NBC10 they believed the teens were playing the "knockout game" when they beat the man.
Far from fun, the 'game' consists of a doer suddenly punching a stranger to try and knock them out.
However, on Saturday, police told NBC10 that after further investigation they determined the assault of the cyclist was not part of the nationwide trend.
Several "knockout" beatings have taken place across the country over recent months -- with attacks taking place in Washington, D.C. and New York City.
NYPD arrested four men on Friday for an attack in Brooklyn on a 24-year-old man. A 51-year-old man died in May after falling victim to a group of teens playing the 'game.'
Two attacks at SEPTA stations over the past few weeks had officials in Philadelphia concerned the violent trend had come here. However, authorities also determined those attacks were not related.
The teens remain at large.
While Friday's incident was not related to the game, news of the attack still prompted several South Philadelphia residents to take their concerns to social media, calling on city leaders to take action.
The group, calling themselves "Taking Our South Philadelphia Streets Back" launched an online campaign to bring the "knockout" game to the attention of the city's leaders, including Mayor Nutter and Commissioner Charles Ramsey.
"Our citizens are sick and tired of living in fear due to teens thinking this is a game," wrote the group's leader Marc Ferguson. "I am here by calling upon the District Attorney, Mayor Michael Nutter, City Council and all of Philadelphia’s legislators to come together and KNOCK OUT, “The Knock Out Game”."
Ferguson writes that he wants the culprits to be charged with a hate crime, aggravated assault, conspiracy, attempted murder reckless endangerment and "anything else that can be added on."
"Then once this is agreed upon, we will stand as one, at a press conference and announce what we will be doing to ensure that this game is only won by us, the city of Philadelphia and it’s citizens," he wrote.
NBC10 spoke with Mayor Nutter who said that such attacks "will not be tolerated."
"I've had conversations with Commissioner Ramsey," Nutter said. "Police officers are paying attention but now that this national phenomenon is sweeping across the country, we need to nip this one in the bud."
Contact Vince Lattanzio at 610.668.5532, vince.lattanzio@nbcuni.com or follow @VinceLattanzio on Twitter.
Philadelphia hip hop star Meek Mill is getting in the holiday spirit and giving back to the city he calls home.
On Monday Meek announced his first annual “A Dreamchaser’s Thanksgiving.” The event, taking place on Tuesday and Wednesday is a pre-Thanksgiving turkey giveaway that will feed nearly 600 families in the Philadelphia community.
“Philly raised me and made me into the man I am today, so to do the first annual ‘A Dreamchaser’s Thanksgiving,’ was an obvious thing to do,” said the 26-year-old rapper. “I’m blessed to be in a position where I can make sure that as many people as possible have a meal on Thanksgiving, so that they can be with their loved ones to enjoy the holiday.”
The event will benefit local organizations, including Youth Working Together, Town Watch and Unity in the Community. Along with Meek, Mayor Michael Nutter also plans to attend the event. (*Note* All guest attendance/participation at events is subject to change).
“I applaud Meek Mill for taking the initiative to give back to his home town,” Nutter said. “Gathering together with family and friends around a shared meal is one of the most important aspects of the holiday season. It is important to give thanks for all that we have, and I am proud that one of Philadelphia’s own is donating his time and resources to make sure families in our city can do just that.”
Meek, born Robert Williams in Philadelphia, released his debut album, “Dreams and Nightmares,” on October 30, 2012, debuting at #2 on Billboard’s “Top 200 albums” chart and selling over 340,000 copies to date. He released his mixtape "Dreamchasers 3" last September and continues to work on his second studio album, due for release next year.
“I’ve been all over the world but Philly is my home,” Meek said. “To be able to now give back is an amazing feeling.”
The events will take place at the following locations at the following times:
Tuesday, Nov. 26
Martin Luther King Jr. Adult Center
5:00-7:00PM
2101-35 Cecil B Moore Avenue
Philadelphia, PA 19121
Tuesday, Nov. 26
Hank Gathers Recreation Center
6:00-8:00PM
2501-19 W. Diamond Street
Philadelphia, PA 19121
Wednesday, Nov. 27
Vare Recreation Center
4:00-6:00PM
2600 Morris Street
Philadelphia, PA 19145
In addition to Meek, local boxer Bernard Hopkins also plans his own turkey giveaway on Tuesday. The event will take place at the Spring Garden Wash & Lube on 1111 Spring Garden Street from 10 a.m. to 12 p.m. Hopkins will give away 300 turkeys to the first 300 people.
