RECORD WARMTH TO WINTER TEMPS
There were a couple of high temperature records set Thursday. Wilmington, DE smashed their record of 63 set in 1913. They got up to 68 degrees. At the Atlantic City airport, their record also was 63 set in 1913. They got up to 67 degrees. In Philadelphia, it reached 67, but the record was 72.
By Friday morning, temperatures will drop into the 40s, which really isn’t very cold for January. But, unlike a normal day that gets warmer in the afternoon, Friday will get colder-especially after dark. By Friday evening, it will be feeling like the 20s! And it should feel like the 20s all day Saturday. That’s not nearly as bitter cold as last weekend, but quite a shock to the system so soon after the record warmth.
THE SNOW THREAT
This is not a big, nasty Nor’easter. It’s not even a well-organized “Clipper”-type storm. This actually has more to do with HIGH pressure than low pressure. So don’t look at your barometer for any clue to the threat of snow around here for Saturday.
Here is the predicted weather map for Saturday at 7am from one of the Canadian models.
You won’t find any “L”’s on the map-not even a weak one. Instead, there’s a big, bad “H” over upstate New York. The number 1043 next to the “H” tells us how strong the HIGH is. The 1043 is in “millibars”, which is the unit meteorologists use to track HIGH and LOW pressure systems. That 1043 is a very high number. If you had one of those old-fashioned barometers, it would tell you that “FAIR” weather is coming. Not this time.
Atmospheric pressure isn’t about absolutes as much as it’s about RELATIVE numbers. The lower pressures in West Virginia aren’t very low, but they are much lower than in the middle of the HIGH. So what happens? The precipitation that you see on the map moves toward the HIGH and will weaken as it moves into the dry air that comes with the HIGH. By 1pm, the HIGH is centered over Long Island, and a small area of snow (blue) is approaching our area. Since Delaware and extreme South Jersey are farther away from the HIGH, those areas have the best chance of any snow accumulation.
So here’s the result: below are maps of projected snow amounts up through Saturday evening from two different models…..
Both cases (and other models, too) suggest several conclusions:
1. Our area in general will get less snow than the Washington, DC area
2. There will be little or no snow in northern parts of our area (Lehigh Valley/Berks and Poconos)
3. The best chance of getting more significant snow in our area would occur in parts of Delaware and extreme South Jersey.
4. Such a light snow falling during daytime hours would likely melt, especially in these southern areas that would be at or above the freezing mark at the time.
In short, I wouldn’t be changing any outdoor weekend plans based on the current information. Of course, things can change in the next day or so, but that is what weather updates are for. We’ll be watching it closely for you.
Photo Credit: Shelby Hopson
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